Social movements, competing rationalities and trigger events: The complexity of Chinese popular mobilizations

Abstract

This article addresses popular mobilizations in repressive regimes, with China as a case in point. It argues that such mobilizations are very different from those in democratic societies and may not be captured in the single-stranded rationalism promoted by much social movement theory. Without access to political representation and stable outlets for social criticism, mobilizations are likely to be set off by ‘trigger events’, just as their growth occurs through distinct phase shifts. A range of Chinese mobilizations over the last several years are introduced. They tend to show that people initially are driven by simple causes rather than ‘ideology’, and often with an ingrained conflict of beliefs. Yet, due to regime reprisal, it may be a short step from addressing a small local issue to challenging the political system as a whole. With reference to complexity theory it is shown that emergent new forms of organized resistance will never follow a linear and predictable development but will be contextually embedded and continually exchanging with that particular cultural and political environment. Thus, when we see the sudden growth of movements which step over the threshold into open discontent and public resistance, the outcome for both the movement itself and the system as a whole is inherently unpredictable.