The belt and road initiative, joint intellectual capital development towards industry value added of a partner economy

Abstract

The BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) project is about to complete its 10 years, and its growth and legitimacy have invoked a wider interest leading to competing arguments about whether it serves any benefits to any BRI partner countries. Opponents contend that BRI serves China’s economic and political purpose without contributing to the partner economy. We attempt to settle this contention by exploring the empirical evidence on CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor), a pilot project of the BRI project that highlights the intellectual development of nations, science and technology progress and socioeconomic development. Socioeconomic theories explain that interactive structures contribute to the partner’s science, technology, and industrial development. Following these assumptions, we raised the empirical question: does the joint Sino-Pak publication predict an increase in Pakistan’s IVA (industry value added) in the post-BRI versus the pre-BRI period? We integrated publications from 27 disciplines from 2012 to 2020 ( N = 243) and linked them to the IVA of Pakistan (estimated by the World Bank). Our robust analysis reveals strong support for the main hypothesis. First, Chinese science positively predicts Pakistan’s IVA, and it negatively predicts the IVA of a non-BRI partner. Second, joint science productivity positively predicts Pakistan’s IVA but not of the non-BRI partner. Third, science productivity predicts Pakistan’s IVA more in the post-BRI period than in the pre-BRI period. In short, Pakistan’s industrial added value through the development of the Chinese contribution to the intellectual development of Pakistan supports this argument, settling the outstanding issue of socioeconomic development of the BRI system. It reduces uncertainty and confusion created by narratives in popular literature of a rhetorical nature. Overall, the study provides a basis for future research and policy.