Linkage Between Road Safety and Economic Development: A Case Study of India

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between fatality risk (number of fatalities per 10,000 people), the level of motorization (number of vehicles per 10,000 people) and fatality rate (number of fatalities per 10,000 vehicles), and the real per capita GDP across Indian states and union territories. Two kinds of relationships—linear and log-linear—are examined. The study also aims to estimate the real per capita GDP after which the fatality risk shows a decreasing trend with further increase in per capita GDP. This inflection point is found out to be somewhere between ₹190,000 and ₹195,000 at 2011–2012 prices. We also found that, from 2015 to 2030, the number of road accidental deaths in India is expected to increase by 55%, whereas the vehicle stock in the country is likely to double.