Optimizing calibration of modern skeletal maturity systems

Abstract

Purpose: Greulich and Pyle is the most used system to estimate skeletal maturity but has significant drawbacks, prompting the development of newer skeletal maturity systems, such as the modified Fels skeletal maturity systems based on knee radiographs. To create a new skeletal maturity system, an outcome variable, termed a “skeletal maturity standard,” must be selected for calibration of the system. Peak height velocity and 90% of final height are both considered reasonable skeletal maturity standards for skeletal maturity system development. We sought to answer two questions: (1) Does a skeletal maturity system developed using 90% of final height estimate skeletal age as well as it would if it was instead developed using peak height velocity? (2) Does a skeletal maturity system developed using 90% of final height perform as well in lower extremity length prediction as it would if it was instead developed using peak height velocity? Methods: The modified Fels knee skeletal maturity system was recalibrated based on 90% of final height and peak height velocity skeletal maturity standards. These models were applied to 133 serially obtained, peripubertal antero-posterior knee radiographs collected from 38 subjects. Each model was used to estimate the skeletal age of each radiograph. Skeletal age estimates were also used to predict each patient’s ultimate femoral and tibial length using the White–Menelaus method. Results: The skeletal maturity system calibrated with 90% of final height produced more accurate skeletal age estimates than the same skeletal maturity system calibrated with peak height velocity (p < 0.05). The 90% of final height and peak height velocity models made similar femoral and tibial length predictions (p > 0.05). Conclusion: Using the 90% of final height skeletal maturity standard allows for simpler skeletal maturity system development than peak height velocity with potentially more accuracy.