Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

Abstract

The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile offenders. Results of this study (N = 29,711) show that the actuarial model provided stable predictive validity estimates for recidivism up to 7 years after its initial validation and that predictive validity did not vary appreciably for males, females, White offenders, Latino youth, African American youth, and Native American youth. These findings lend further support to the actuarial approach to risk assessment and clarify the literature about risk assessment across gender and race/ethnicity.