The Scientific Evaluation of New Claims

Abstract

In the scientific world, the burden of proof for new claims is on the claimant. This is consistent with probabilities, because most new suggestions do turn out to be false. There is no single path from claim to proof This article illustrates four typical stages of the process, using the example of a claim for effectiveness of a new treatment. They are labeled "Tentative or Suggestive Evidence, " "Promising or Interesting, " "Probably Effective, " and "Established Effectiveness. " Each is based on characteristic levels of evidence. A few clues for identifying naive enthusiasts or outright frauds who try to shortcut these stages include claims of being ignored or rejected by an "establishment" that is too self-interested or set in its ways to consider new approaches; claims of special skills that others lack; vagueness about how the treatment has been evaluated and tested; and expressions such as "amazing, " "unique, " "special, " and "never dreamed of. "