Diagnostic and prognostic value of diquat plasma concentration and complete blood count in patients with acute diquat poisoning based on random forest algorithms

Abstract

Currently, the incidence of diquat (DQ) poisoning is increasing, and quickly predicting the prognosis of poisoned patients is crucial for clinical treatment. In this study, a total of 84 DQ poisoning patients were included, with 38 surviving and 46 deceased. The plasma DQ concentration of DQ poisoned patients, determined by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) were collected and analyzed with their complete blood count (CBC) indicators. Based on DQ concentration and CBC dataset, the random forest of diagnostic and prognostic models were established. The results showed that the initial DQ plasma concentration was highly correlated with patient prognosis. There was data redundancy in the CBC dataset, continuous measurement of CBC tests could improve the model’s predictive accuracy. After feature selection, the predictive accuracy of the CBC dataset significantly increased to 0.81 ± 0.17, with the most important features being white blood cells and neutrophils. The constructed CBC random forest prediction model achieved a high predictive accuracy of 0.95 ± 0.06 when diagnosing DQ poisoning. In conclusion, both DQ concentration and CBC dataset can be used to predict the prognosis of DQ treatment. In the absence of DQ concentration, the random forest model using CBC data can effectively diagnose DQ poisoning and patient’s prognosis.