Avoiding atmospheric anarchy: Geoengineering as a source of interstate tension

Abstract

Idealized climate modeling of geoengineering, notably including stratospheric aerosol injection, routinely frames the practice as the provision of a global public good in the absence of geopolitical context. This study argues that the situation of geoengineering governance within individual state governments combined with the technology’s substantial, unforeseeable consequences present a potential security dilemma that heightens tensions between states and risks conflict, including potential environmental catastrophe. Initially, there is a brief overview of geoengineering technology and the associated concerns before highlighting four elements of the technology that potentially generate interstate tension: the potential for independent action, low costs, ambiguity surrounding deployment, and the possibility of counter-geoengineering. This is followed by a discussion of four speculative geoengineering scenarios intended to illustrate the complexity of potential geoengineering impacts on states’ strategic thinking and risks associated with solar geoengineering. The article outlines four scenarios derived by isolating the availability of counter-geoengineering and the controllability of geoengineering as drivers for contesting strategic climate outcomes. The scenarios emphasize possible geopolitical tensions that could emerge under geoengineering, encouraging further study of potential geoengineering efforts within international security.