The prioritisation of climate security: A content analysis of national security agendas

Abstract

Climate change is leading to severe environmental degradation and ecological breakdown. We are on a path towards 2°C to 3°C warming above pre-industrial levels, yet at the current 1°C warming, we already see drastic and irreversible changes. Arguably, this represents an existential threat to humanity, and by extension, a national security threat to every country in the world. Nevertheless, the securitisation of climate remains contested, and research on states’ approaches to climate securitisation remains limited despite them being the most important actors in climate change policy. In this article, we perform a content analysis on a large corpus of current national security and defence documents from 94 countries to determine: Is climate on national security agendas? To what extent is it prioritised? What are the main ways in which national security agendas handle climate security? We find that although most states in our sample (84%) mention climate in their national security documents (NSDs), they still treat it as a low priority in most cases. All states devote less than a quarter of their NSDs to climate change. Only five states dedicate 10% or more, whilst the majority of states dedicate 3% or less.