Conditional cross-border effects of terrorism in China

Abstract

This paper explores whether the cross-border effect of ethnic violence is contingent on internal factors, such as domestic security measures, distribution of religious sites, availability of communication tools, and proximity to turbulent neighboring countries. Using county-level data from Xinjiang (1995–2012), our analyses show no support for direct violence-enhancing effects of outside terrorism in Xinjiang. When terrorist attacks increase globally or in neighboring countries, overall violence in Xinjiang diminishes. We attribute this to increased security measures by the government. However, the reduction in violence is highly conditional on local factors. We find that historical religiosity and geographic proximity to the border reduce the subsident effects of external terrorism.