The Power-Conflict Story: a Synopsis

Abstract

The focus of this article is the development of a differential equations model that integrates balance of power and power transition theories. This integration is achieved by proposing three different conditions, each of which is associated with specialized conflict behavior. Extrapolation from the traditional theories' arguments about war to the forces governing the ebb and flow of conflict is another integration technique. Most notably, the formal model predicts three types of power transitions: deflections, tortoise and hare transitions, and single transitions. Only the single transition is similar to the type of transition predicted by power transition theory. The other two types are important because they account for unsuccessful challenges. Important differences in conflict patterns also distinguish the three transition types from one another. The model also makes predictions concerning the relationship between two rivals' conflict levels and the timing of conflict peaks. Using a case study for each of the three types of transitions, the predictions are tested using MID data supplemented with historical analyses. Empirical support is strong. Substantive conclusions include recommendations for slowing rates of reaction, cautions concerning the dangers of the post-transition phase, and advice for tortoises to conserve their resources. This project also advocates the usefulness of a broader collection of events data than is currently available and the possible need for variables that trace the evolution of bonds that tie nations together.