An Introduction To Lewis Fry Richardson and His Mathematical Theory of War and Peace

Abstract

Lewis Fry Richardson was a pioneer of peace research. His brilliant, groundbreaking studies, Arms and Insecurity, and Statistics of Deadly Quarrels, showed how mathematical modeling techniques and statistical analysis could be applied to quantitatively investigate questions relating to war and peace. These studies and his database on “deadly quarrels“, that is quarrels in which humans died, have influenced many peace researchers and continue to be a rich source of ideas. In this paper we begin by giving a brief background sketch of Richardson's life. We then proceed to introduce some of the basic ideas of his peace research. Richardson's work indicates a number of areas of difficulty and limits to our understanding, both in regards to theory and to data, and it raises questions that still need to be addressed. It also demonstrates the need for an interdisciplinary approach.