A Study of Conflict in Northern Ireland: An Application of Metagame Theory

Abstract

This paper summarizes a study of the conflict in Northern Ireland using the particular analytic technique of metagame theory known as the analysis of options. Four major alternative political structures were identified and the relative stability of each was analyzed. The alternatives were: (1) a United Ireland, (2) Dominion status or legislative independence for Northern Ireland, (3) Colonial status with a legislative Assembly subordinate to the British Government, and token representation at Westminster, (4) an integrated Parliament of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Alternatives (2) and (3) were evaluated with and without a Council of Ireland or other link with the Republic of Ireland. The results suggest the most stable structure would be Dominion status for Northern Ireland with constitutional guarantees for participation by minorities in the processes of government.