A Theory of Armament

Abstract

I develop a theory explaining how states decide how much armament to acquire. The theory treats states as unitary optimizers choosing between guns and butter, and it offers a novel exposition of the role intentions play in armament decisions-how they are perceived, and how their assessment interacts with the assessment of power. One of the results deduced from the theory is that if statesmen worry about intentions more than about power, then high arms levels possessed by one state will be matched by low arms levels possessed by another, this prediction sharply contradicts conventional wisdom about the nature of arms-races. Statistical analysis of the Superpowers' cold war interaction-which supports the theory-is briefly discussed.