Conflict and the Duration of Peace in Enduring Internal Rivalries

Abstract

The question of how conflicts affect the nature of the peace forms a puzzle for students of civil conflict.Theoretical arguments and empirical evidence exist supporting the conclusion that increased violence leads to longer or shorter peace durations. Applying a model of rivalry that includes public support of conflict, this paper hypothesizes that the greater the concentration in fighting, the longer the subsequent peace between internal rivals lasts.This hypothesis receives support from tests on the duration of peace between Enduring Internal Rivalries.The implications from this finding provide new advice for policy makers seeking to invest scarce resources into civil conflict management.