A hybrid epidemiological model based on individual dynamics

Abstract

This article proposes a hybrid susceptible–infected–removed model which takes into consideration the spatiotemporal dynamics of the individuals. The model is based on a system of discrete stochastic diffusion equations. To build these equations, the two-dimensional diffusion equations coming from a balanced method are coupled with the human displacement probability law pattern through a discretization made by the finite volume method for complex geometries. The validation of this model is applied to COVID-19 spread. Since it is actual and the statistics are available elsewhere. The case of a developed country is used for simulation under some assumptions. Firstly to fit the chosen displacement pattern, then the accuracy of the statistics provided helps to analyze the sensitivity of the parameters of the model. The results explain the influence of the population movement on the evolution of the spread.