Performance of chest X-ray scoring in predicting disease severity and outcomes of patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in Bangladesh

Abstract

Introduction: Evaluation of potential outcomes of COVID-19-affected pneumonia patients using computed tomography scans may not be conceivable in low-resource settings. Thus, we aimed to evaluate the performance of chest X-ray scoring in predicting the disease severity and outcomes of adults hospitalised with COVID-19. Methods: This was a retrospective chart analysis consuming data from COVID-19-positive adults who had chest X-ray availability and were admitted to a temporary COVID unit, in Bangladesh from 23rd April 2020 to 15th November 2021. At least one clinical intensivist and one radiologist combinedly reviewed each admission chest X-ray for the different lung findings. Chest X-ray scoring varied from 0 to 8, depending on the area of lung involvement with 0 indicating no involvement and 8 indicating ⩾75% involvement of both lungs. The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine the optimum chest X-ray cut-off score for predicting the fatal outcomes. Result: A total of 218 (82.9%) out of 263 COVID-19-affected adults were included in the study. The receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated the optimum cut-off as ⩾3 and ⩾5 for disease severity and death, respectively. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, a chest X-ray score of ⩾3 was found to be independently associated with disease severity (aOR: 8.70; 95% CI: 3.82, 19.58, p < 0.001) and a score of ⩾5 with death (aOR: 16.53; 95% CI: 4.74, 57.60, p < 0.001) after adjusting age, sex, antibiotic usage before admission, history of fever, cough, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, total leukocytes count and C-reactive protein. Conclusion: Using chest X-ray scoring derived cut-off at admission might help to identify the COVID-19-affected adults who are at risk of severe disease and mortality. This may help to initiate early and aggressive management of such patients, thereby reducing their fatal outcomes.