CFO: Calibration-free odds design for phase I/II clinical trials

Abstract

Recent revolution in oncology treatment has witnessed emergence and fast development of the targeted therapy and immunotherapy. In contrast to traditional cytotoxic agents, these types of treatment tend to be more tolerable and thus efficacy is of more concern. As a result, seamless phase I/II trials have gained enormous popularity, which aim to identify the optimal biological dose (OBD) rather than the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). To enhance the accuracy and robustness for identification of OBD, we develop a calibration-free odds (CFO) design. For toxicity monitoring, the CFO design casts the current dose in competition with its two neighboring doses to obtain an admissible set. For efficacy monitoring, CFO selects the dose that has the largest posterior probability to achieve the highest efficacy under the Bayesian paradigm. In contrast to most of the existing designs, the prominent merit of CFO is that its main dose-finding component is model-free and calibration-free, which can greatly ease the burden on artificial input of design parameters and thus enhance the robustness and objectivity of the design. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate that the CFO design strikes a good balance between efficiency and safety for MTD identification under phase I trials, and yields comparable or sometimes slightly better performance for OBD identification than the competing methods under phase I/II trials.