Affiliation:
1. Department of Geography, University of Cambridge
2. Department of Geography, University of Bristol
Abstract
This paper reviews the application of statistical models to outbreaks of two common respiratory viral diseases, measles and influenza. For each disease, we look first at its epidemiological characteristics and assess the extent to which these either aid or hinder modelling. We then turn to the models that have been developed to simulate geographical spread. For measles, a distinction is drawn between process-based and time series models; for influenza, it is the scale of the communities (from small groups to global populations) which primarily determines modelling style. Applications are provided from work by the authors, largely using Icelandic data. Finally we consider the forecasting potential of the models described.
Subject
Health Information Management,Statistics and Probability,Epidemiology
Reference49 articles.
1. Farr W. Progress of epidemics. Second report of the registrar general of England and Wales. London: His Majesty's Stationery Office, 1840: 91-98.
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