Inferring risks of coronavirus transmission from community household data

Author:

House Thomas123ORCID,Riley Heather1,Pellis Lorenzo13,Pouwels Koen B456,Bacon Sebastian7,Eidukas Arturas8,Jahanshahi Kaveh8,Eggo Rosalind M9,Sarah Walker A.451011

Affiliation:

1. Department of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester UK

2. IBM Research, Hartree Centre, Daresbury UK

3. The Alan Turing Institute for Data Science and Artificial Intelligence, London UK

4. Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford UK

5. The National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare Associated Infections and Antimicrobial Resistance at the University of Oxford, Oxford UK

6. Health Economics Research Centre, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, , Oxford UK

7. The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford UK

8. Data Science Campus, Office for National Statistics (ONS)

9. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London UK

10. The National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford UK

11. MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL, UCL, London UK

Abstract

The response of many governments to the COVID-19 pandemic has involved measures to control within- and between-household transmission, providing motivation to improve understanding of the absolute and relative risks in these contexts. Here, we perform exploratory, residual-based, and transmission-dynamic household analysis of the Office for National Statistics COVID-19 Infection Survey data from 26 April 2020 to 15 July 2021 in England. This provides evidence for: (i) temporally varying rates of introduction of infection into households broadly following the trajectory of the overall epidemic and vaccination programme; (ii) susceptible-Infectious transmission probabilities of within-household transmission in the 15–35% range; (iii) the emergence of the Alpha and Delta variants, with the former being around 50% more infectious than wildtype and 35% less infectious than Delta within households; (iv) significantly (in the range of 25–300%) more risk of bringing infection into the household for workers in patient-facing roles pre-vaccine; (v) increased risk for secondary school-age children of bringing the infection into the household when schools are open; (vi) increased risk for primary school-age children of bringing the infection into the household when schools were open since the emergence of new variants.

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Subject

Health Information Management,Statistics and Probability,Epidemiology

Reference49 articles.

1. Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies. Reducing within- and between-household transmission in light of new variant SARS-CoV-2, 14 January, 2021. Paper prepared by the Environmental Modelling Group (EMG), the Scientific Pandemic Insights Group on Behaviours (SPI-B) and the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M).

2. Office for National Statistics. Families and households, Edition: 15 November, 2019. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/families/datasets/familiesandhouseholdsfamiliesandhouseholds.

3. SOME CONCEPTIONS OF EPIDEMICS IN GENERAL1

4. Influenza Transmission in Households During the 1918 Pandemic

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