The Collapse of State in Afghanistan: A Repeat of History?

Abstract

The sudden and stunning fall of Kabul on 15 August 2021 to the Taliban raised many questions about the immediate and underlying causes of the state’s collapse, the consequences of the US/NATO’s retreat, and what the Taliban’s military victory meant for Afghanistan, the region and beyond. This article focuses on the main causes of the collapse and attempts to offer an uncomplicated yet inclusive picture first by explaining the immediate overriding security and political triggers and then by examining the underlying strategic, structural and historical factors. A ground-level assessment of the situation indicated that the resumption of the Doha talks in late 2018 and its subsequent political, diplomatic and military repercussions building over months contributed to the precipitous collapse. However, a bird’s eye-view analysis revealed that structural flaws in the design, process and implementation of the post 9/11 state-building efforts in Afghanistan such as a top-down, highly centralised and winner takes all system, and a weak public participation and accountability mechanism were among the underlying failure factors.