US–Afghanistan Relations Post-withdrawal: Is There a Future?

Abstract

Since the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in 2021, no country, including the United States (US), has yet recognised the former. The US has consistently urged the regime to comply with the Doha agreement that emphasised an inclusive government. Moreover, the Biden administration has repeatedly asked the regime to respect human rights and allow girls education and employment, but in vain. What explains the divergences in US–Afghanistan relations post-withdrawal? What is the trajectory of the US–Taliban ties in the current context? Above all, is there any possibility of the US recognition of the Taliban regime in the foreseeable future? Based on primary data, it is posited that the relations between the US and the Taliban-controlled Afghanistan are divergent and currently antagonistic due to the Taliban’s non-compliance with the Doha agreement. Futuristically, the study explores three scenarios to predict US–Afghanistan relations. First, there is a likelihood of US–Afghanistan rapprochement if the Taliban do the US bidding. Second, in cases of non-compliance, the US would get tough on the regime in terms of further sanctions. However, the Taliban would consolidate (informal) ties with China, Russia and other regional countries, including Pakistan. Third, the US has the military capabilities to do regime change in Afghanistan in case of another 9/11-type incident in the US.