Central Bank Communications and Professional Forecasts: Evidence From India

Abstract

We analyze the influence of qualitative and quantitative communications of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on inflation expectations of professional forecasters and draw out implications for policy. Estimating Carroll-type epidemiological models of expectation formation under information rigidities, we get a large speed of adjustment of professional forecasters’ expectations. Analysis of the determinants of inflation forecasts, inflation surprises, and forecaster disagreement reveals significant influence of quantitative RBI communications in the form of inflation projections. This effect is prominent for shorter-horizon forecasts and after adoption of flexible inflation targeting. Macroeconomic fundamentals like lagged inflation and repo rate also significantly influence inflation forecasts. Choice of words in the RBI monetary policy statements has more impact after October 2016, when the monetary policy committee became the decision-making body. JEL Classification: E31, E52, E58