Do Stock Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-varying Vector Autoregressive Model

Author:

Aye Goodness C.1,Gupta Rangan1,Modise Mampho P.1

Affiliation:

1. Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa.

Abstract

This article investigates the existence of spillovers from stock prices onto consumption and the interest rate for South Africa using a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility. In this regard, we estimate a three-variable TVP-VAR model comprising real consumption growth rate, the nominal three-months Treasury bill rate and the growth rate of real stock prices. We find that the impact of a real stock price shocks on consumption is in general positive, with large and significant effects observed at the one-quarter-ahead horizon. However, there is also evidence of significant negative spillovers from the stock market to consumption during the financial crisis, at both short and long horizons. The monetary policy response to stock price shocks has been persistent, and strong especially post the financial liberalisation in 1985, but became weaker during the financial crisis. Overall, we provide evidence of significant time-varying spillovers on consumption and interest rate from the stock market. JEL Classification: C11, C15, C32, E31, E32, E44, E52

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Subject

Economics and Econometrics,Finance

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3