A new two-stage decomposition and integrated hybrid model for short-term wind speed prediction

Abstract

Accurate wind speed prediction is of essential importance for the stability and safe operation of power systems. Given the complexity of wind speed sequence, this paper proposed a new two-stage decomposition and integrated hybrid model to improve the accuracy of wind speed prediction. A two-stage decomposition method combining robust local mean decomposition (RLMD), sample entropy (SE) and variational modal decomposition (VMD) was used to decompose the wind speed signal in the data preprocessing stage. Firstly, the wind speed signal was decomposed into various components by RLMD, and the complexity of each component was calculated using the SE to classify them into random, detail component and trend component. Then, a secondary decomposition of the random component with the highest SE was performed using the VMD. In the prediction stage, two different prediction models were used for prediction depending on the smoothness of each component. Stochastic configuration networks (SCN) was used to predict the detail and trend components with relatively smoothness. Echo state network (ESN) was used to predict the components of the secondary decomposition. Finally, the actual wind speed data were compared by different prediction models, which illustrated that the prediction method proposed in this paper had good prediction accuracy and generalizability.