Determinants of Urban land development: A panel study for U.S. metropolitan areas

Abstract

This study examines the extent and determinants of urban land expansion and fragmentation for 104 U.S. metropolitan areas for the time period 2001-2019. It leverages temporally and spatially consistent, satellite-based data. The analysis distinguishes among four different intensity levels of urban development and makes use of a number of landscape fragmentation metrics. Estimation relies on two-way fixed-effects panel techniques. Our time fixed-effects indicate that high-intensity urban developments grew by about 25% from 2001 to 2019, low-intensity developments by about 5%. The percentage increases for the corresponding fragmentation statistics are higher, at about 40% and 15%, respectively. Higher gasoline prices are associated with less urban land expansion and fragmentation.