Assessment of model validation outcomes of a new recursive spatial equilibrium model for the Greater Beijing

Abstract

Robust calibration and validation of applied urban models are prerequisites for their successful, policy-cogent use. This is particularly important today when expert assessment is questioned and closely scrutinized. This paper proposes a new model calibration-validation strategy based on a spatial equilibrium model that incorporates multiple time horizons, such that the predictive capabilities of the model can be empirically tested. The model is implemented for the Greater Beijing city region and the model validation strategy is demonstrated over the Census years 2000 to 2010. Through forward/backward forecasting, the model validation helps to verify the stability of the model parameters as well as the predictive capabilities of the recursive equilibrium framework. The proposed modelling strategy sets a new standard for verifying and validating recursive equilibrium models. We also consider the wider implications of the approach.