Key determinants of particulate matter 2.5 concentrations in urban environments with scenario analysis

Abstract

Particulate matter (PM) 2.5 generates a variety of negative effects on health, such as heart and lung disease, asthma, and respiratory symptoms. The pollutants in the atmosphere primarily result from human activities, and, in urban settings, increases in traffic volume and higher building density can elevate the level of PM2.5. Building on previous research, this study primarily focuses on two highly developed urban areas in the Texas Triangle region: Travis County in the Austin Metropolitan Area and Harris County in the Greater Houston Area. It explores different types of urban features, such as urban structures, land use/land cover, traffic volume, and distance from roads, that affect the PM2.5 concentration in urban environments at the local scale. Throughout this study, we use various research methods, including geographically weighted regression, to estimate the PM2.5 concentrations at local scales, 3D city models to derive urban characteristics, and the random forest algorithm to predict the effects of urban features on PM2.5 concentrations. Our findings suggest that developed land use, tall buildings in dense areas, and major traffic networks are the key contributors to PM2.5. However, we also find that tree canopy cover can significantly reduce PM2.5 concentrations.