Validation of Models for Predicting the Use of Health Technologies

Abstract

Validation must be carried out before a model can be used confidently as a tool of managerial decision making in health care. The authors describe a bootstrap approach to validating models for predicting the utilization of four technologies used in neonatal care: measurement of blood gases (gasometry), the oxygen hood, continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP), and mechanical ventilation. These models were fitted by stepwise multiple linear regression from 20 prognostic covariates of 193 neonates. One hundred bootstrap samples were generated to validate the choices of covariates in the models based on their frequencies of selection. This approach validated the models for the oxygen hood and CPAP. The regression coefficients and standard deviations for the CPAP and oxygen hood models were estimated using 200 additional bootstrap samples. A close agreement between stepwise and bootstrap estimates was observed for both models. These results suggest that bootstrap can be useful for validating models for predicting the utilization of health technologies Key words: ne onatal intensive care, forecasting; health facility planning; health technology; bootstrap; model validation; regression analysis; linear models. (Med Decis Making 1998;18: 311-319)