Tertium datur: Multi-attribute reference points and integration choices between the European Union and Eurasian Economic Union

Abstract

The article imports insights from prospect theory into the study of integration choices of ruling elites from Eastern Partnership countries. It introduces the notion of multi-attribute reference points and provides an example of identifying their coordinates, against which ruling elites from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine are expected to consider distinct integration choices: the European Union or Eurasian Economic Union. The research finds that ruling elites from Eastern Partnership countries with the lowest levels of affluence, with medium to high intensity conflicts with Russia and with lower, but still non-trivial costs of domestic transformation have tended to be risk-seeking and opted for the European Union as an integration choice. However, ruling elites from Eastern Partnership countries with low and medium levels of affluence, with no conflict with Russia and with medium to high costs of domestic transformation have tended to be risk-averse and selected the Eurasian Economic Union as an integration option.