How Social Networks Shape Refugee Movements in Wartime: Evidence from the Russian Attack on Ukraine

Abstract

This article analyzes the key factors guiding the destination choice of Ukrainian refugees in the EU between March and December 2022 in the framework of the activation of the Temporary Protection Directive. To this end, it specifies a migration model, computed for the whole period and two subperiods (March–May and June–December), that captures the influence of social networks. Furthermore, our migration model makes a distinction for the first time between prewar migrant communities and the new social networks that are emerging in wartime circumstances. The estimation of the model, using the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood estimator by Santos Silva and Tenreyro (2006), confirmed the importance of both types of social networks in explaining refugees’ choice of destination. The results also revealed that some economic variables (expected earnings and the size of the informal sector) influenced the location choice of refugees since the outbreak of the war, while other socioeconomic and political factors (risk of social exclusion, anti-immigration sentiment, and rule of law) only did so after a few months, when it became increasingly self-evident that the war was going on for a long time.