Changes in the Competitiveness of House Primary Elections, 1956-1976

Abstract

This study examines trends in U.S. House primary election competition from 1956-1976. While primaries generally have become more contested, the degree of change varies with the partisanship of the primary and the opportunities for winning the seat in the fall. Democratic races have increased in competitiveness more than have Republican contests, thus making even greater the normal party difference. Furthermore, stronger trends toward competitiveness exist within the primaries of more marginal incumbents in both parties. In primaries not involving an incumbent, however, there is an important difference betwen the parties; here, Democratic candidates to a greater extent have been drawn to contests in districts where they stand a better chance in November, while exactly the opposite obtains for Republicans. This suggests, therefore, that close primaries increasingly signify real candidate interest in obtaining a House seat among Democrats, but internecine ideological or factional struggles for the opposition.