Retrospective Voting and Future Expectations

Abstract

According to theories of retrospective voting, voters hold an incumbent administration responsible for problems or achievements that occur during its term. During the Reagan administrations, the deficit was one such problem. In this article, the interplay between the deficit issue and the voting decision is investigated. The major findings of this study are the following: (a) The deficit was a salient issue in 1988, and for many voters it was the most important problem facing the nation; (b) voters recognized that the deficit was a Reagan-era phenomenon; (c) an individual's perception of which party was better able to solve the deficit problem strongly influenced the vote; (d) many thought the Republican Party would better manage the deficit issue in the future. Thus Republicans suffered very little at the ballot box as a result of the issue. Future refinements of retrospective-voting theory must take into account this failure to hold the incumbent party accountable for problems encountered during its term.