Decline of U.S. Voter Turnout

Abstract

This article explores structural causes of the decline in turnout in American elections. One-quarter of the 10 percentage point decline in presidential turnout since 1964 is explained by a changing age distribution. America's population is growing in just those young and old age groups that vote in low rates. A second structural cause is an expanding election calendar across federal, state, and local governments. A disaggregation of elections has increased the number of times electors are called to the polls, which has contributed to declining turnout in individual elections. Finally, tracing individual voter histories across a series of elections provides evidence of a core electorate, which is large as a proportion of the registered electorate and which votes at a reasonably high and equal level. The evidence for these voter histories is drawn from the CPS Voter Validation Study and from a sample of registered voters in a Connecticut town.