Bill and Al's Excellent Adventure

Abstract

In this article I descnbe a model for forecasting the outcomes of U.S. presidential elections. The model uses three predictors: the incumbent president's approval rating at midyear, the annual rate of growth of real gross domestic product during the first half of the election year, and the length of time that the president's party has held the White House. The time factor most clearly distinguishes this model from other presidential forecasting models. Using this model, it is possible to forecast the outcome of the presidential race in early August with greater accuracy than most final preelection polls. Based on the president's approval rating in mid-May (55%) and the rate of economic growth during the first quarter of 1996 (2.8%), the model yields a conditional forecast of a decisive victory for Bill Clinton in November with approximately 56% of the major party vote.