Risk-based software release policy under parameter uncertainty

Abstract

The determination of the optimal release time is a significant problem in the software development process. Most existing research on this problem is based on the assumption that the model parameters are either known or can be accurately estimated. Due to the uncertainties associated with parameter estimation created by the very limited amount of software failure data that is generally available, the accuracy of the optimum release time determined by traditional approaches is questionable. When the mean value of the optimal release time is used, for example, there is only a 50 per cent chance that the reliability target is met at the time of release. In this paper, an optimal software release policy under parameter uncertainty is studied. To take parameter uncertainty into consideration, an optimal risk-based software release time determination approach is introduced. Application examples are given to illustrate this approach and simulation studies are carried out. The presented results can help management to consider multiple risk levels in order to reach a more reasonable decision.