Spatio-temporal Analysis of Demand for Elderly Care Services and Its Key Influencing Factors in Chinese Cities: A Web Search Engine Approach

Abstract

The demand for elderly care services (DECS) in Chinese Cities is one of the most concerned issues. The aim of this study was to understand the spatial and temporal evolution and external factors of DECS in Chinese cities and support the formulation of elderly care policies. We collected Baidu Index data for 287 prefecture-level and above cities and 31 provinces in China from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2020. The Thiel Index was employed to describe the differences of DECS at different regional levels, and multiple linear regression was used to explore the external factors affecting DECS by calculating the variance inflation factor (VIF) to identify multicollinearity. The DECS of Chinese cities increased from 0.48 million in 2012 to 0.96 million in 2020, and the Thiel Index decreased from 0.5237 in 2012 to 0.2211 in 2020. Per capital GDP, number of primary beds, proportion of population aged 65 and over, number of primary care visits, and proportion of illiterate population over the age of 15 have significant influences on DECS ( P < .05). DECS was on the rise in Chinese cities, with significant regional differences. At the provincial level, regional differences were influenced by level of economic development, primary care provision, aging population, educational attainment, and health status. It is suggested to pay more attention to DECS in small and medium-sized cities or regions, to strengthen primary care, and to improve the health literacy and health status of the elderly population.