Exploring Australian hazard map exceedance using an Atlas of historical ShakeMaps

Abstract

This article explores several area-based tests of long-term seismic hazard forecasts for the Australian continent. Using the observed seismicity, ShakeMaps are calculated for earthquakes that are expected to have generated moderate-to-high levels of ground shaking within continental Australia in the past 50 years (January 1972 through December 2021). A “composite ShakeMap” is generated that extracts the maximum peak ground acceleration “observed” in this 50-year period for any site within the continent. The fractional exceedance area of this composite map is compared with four generations of Australian seismic hazard maps for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (~1/500 annual exceedance probability) developed since 1990. In general, all these models appear to forecast higher seismic hazard relative to the ground motions that are estimated to have occurred in the last 50 years, with the most recent hazard model yielding a fractional exceedance area most similar to the target 1/500 annual exceedance probability. The sensitivity of these results to various modeling assumptions was tested by exploring an alternative ground-motion characterization model that forecasts higher overall ground-shaking intensities. The sensitivity of these results is also tested with the interjection of a rare scenario earthquake with an expected regional recurrence of approximately 8700 years. While these area-based analyses do not provide a robust assessment of the performance of the candidate seismic hazard for any specific location given the limited independent data, they do provide—to the first order—a guide to the performance of the respective maps at a continental scale.