Exposure model for European seismic risk assessment

Author:

Crowley Helen1ORCID,Despotaki Venetia2,Rodrigues Daniela1,Silva Vitor23,Toma-Danila Dragos4,Riga Evi5,Karatzetzou Anna5,Fotopoulou Stavroula5,Zugic Zeljko6,Sousa Luis7,Ozcebe Sevgi8,Gamba Paolo9

Affiliation:

1. EUCENTRE, Pavia, Italy

2. GEM Foundation, Pavia, Italy

3. Faculty of Science and Technology, University Fernando Pessoa, Porto, Portugal

4. National Institute for Earth Physics, Magurele, Romania

5. Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece

6. Innovation Center of the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia

7. AIR Worldwide, London, UK

8. Studio Calvi, Pavia, Italy

9. University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy

Abstract

Building exposure and vulnerability models for seismic risk assessment have been the focus of a number of European projects in recent years, but there has never been a concerted effort among the research community to produce a uniform European risk model. The European Commission’s Horizon 2020 SERA project has a work package that is dedicated to that objective, through the development of an exposure model, an associated set of fragility/vulnerability models, and a database of socioeconomic indicators in order to calculate probabilistic integrated seismic risk at a European scale. This article provides details of the development of the first versions of the European exposure model that describe the distribution of the main residential, industrial and commercial building classes across all countries in Europe, as well as their occupants and replacement costs. The v0.1 of the European exposure model has been integrated within the Global Earthquake Model’s global exposure and risk maps. Preliminary analyses using the model show that almost 35% of the residential population in Europe is exposed to a 475-year return period peak ground acceleration (PGA) hazard of at least 0.1 g, thus highlighting the importance of European seismic risk modeling and mitigation.

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Subject

Geophysics,Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology

Reference21 articles.

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