Consequences of consequence models: The impact of economies of scale on seismic loss estimates

Abstract

The detailed evaluation of expected losses and damage experienced by structural and nonstructural components is a fundamental part of performance-based seismic design and assessment. The FEMA P-58 methodology represents the state of the art in this area. Increasing interest in improving structural performance and community resilience has led to widespread adoption of this methodology and the library of component models published with it. This study focuses on the modeling of economies of scale for repair cost calculation and specifically highlights the lack of a definition for aggregate damage, a quantity with considerable influence on the component repair costs. The article illustrates the highly variable and often substantial impact of damage aggregation that can alter total repair costs by more than 25%. Four so-called edge cases representing different damage aggregation methods are introduced to investigate which components experience large differences in their repair costs and under what circumstances. A three-step evaluation strategy is proposed that allows engineers to quickly evaluate the potential impact of damage aggregation on a specific performance assessment. This helps users of currently available assessment tools to recognize and communicate this uncertainty even when the tools they use only support one particular damage aggregation method. A case study of a 9-story building illustrates the proposed strategy and the impact of this ambiguity on the performance of a realistic structure. The article concludes with concrete recommendations toward the development of a more sophisticated model for repair consequence calculation.