Testing effects of hospitality employment on property crime in the United States

Abstract

This study aims to model the effect of hospitality employment on property crime in economic crime equations, in which unemployment either indicates the opportunity cost of crime or suggests the decrease of targets. We developed a model of property crime that incorporates both unemployment rate and hospitality employment, in which the effect of unemployment rate on property crime is controlled to isolate the net effect of hospitality employment. We tested the model with the data of hospitality employment and property crime rates in the United States from 1972 to 2012, for which the date are available. On the one hand, we verified a negative causation from unemployment rate to property crime, suggesting that high unemployment rates reduce the targets of criminal activities, which in turn reduces property crime. On the other hand, by controlling for the effect of unemployment rate, we found a significantly negative causation from hospitality employment to property crime, suggesting that the decrease in property crime is due to hospitality employment that increases the opportunity cost of property crime.