Modelling UK energy system response to natural gas supply infrastructure failures

Abstract

A modelling approach is used to investigate the impacts of disruptions to natural gas supplies on the UK energy system and the effectiveness of strategic infrastructure investments which could help to mitigate these impacts. The combined gas and electricity network model is described. It is then used to project the development of the UK gas and electricity networks out to 2030 under two different scenarios for the wider development of the UK energy system. A set of plausible gas supply disruptions associated with three major gas facilities, lasting from 5 to 90 days, are hypothesised to occur in mid-winter 2025. The impacts are assessed in terms of shortfalls in natural gas deliveries and the costs of wider adjustments to the gas and electricity networks. Finally, the benefits arising from a number of strategic, mitigating investments in facilities such as gas storage or expanded liquefied natural gas import capacity are assessed. Although a full cost-benefit analysis was not possible, efficacy is assessed in terms of the frequency with which disruptions would need to occur to justify the mitigating investments.