Comparative risk analysis of electricity generating systems using the J-value framework

Abstract

Decisions regarding the implementation of different forms of electricity generating systems necessarily require consideration of a large number of social, economic, environmental, and technical indicators. One such important indicator is the effect on health. This article presents a comparative risk analysis of mortality impacts arising from the generation of electricity by nuclear, coal, gas, onshore wind, and offshore wind UK power plants. The risk analysis was carried out using the J-value method, which provides a common, objective scale by which human harm can be valued. The analysis assessed human mortality impacts arising from the construction of future plants over the 60-year period from 2010 to 2070 for the entire fuel chain. Despite the considerable uncertainties in current estimates, the analysis provides evidence of the worth of the J-value methodology, particularly in relation to its ability to take explicit account of loss of life expectancy in evaluating delayed health effects. Risks are delineated according to two dimensions: whether the risk is occupational or public, and whether the risk is immediate or delayed. Impacts are also assessed for major accidents. The results indicate that nuclear generally has the lowest impacts, while gas, onshore wind and offshore wind have indicative impacts that are about an order of magnitude greater, although the estimates for both wind technologies carry considerable uncertainty. Coal power was found to present high impacts compared with the other technologies, mainly as a result of pollution emissions, even though the potential harm from some emissions has not been included because the effects are not fully understood. Total nuclear impacts were found to be sensitive to assumptions regarding the use of collective dose and the assumptions which are then used to calculate impacts. For the most pessimistic case, when world exposures are taken, total nuclear impacts increase by about an order of magnitude, which would render the risks from nuclear generation comparable with those from gas and wind generation.