Iran’s gas export portfolio risk analysis based on the development of dependency risk framework

Abstract

This study attempts to provide a novel analytical framework for assessing Iran’s gas export portfolio risk considering the aggregate dependency index of natural gas of importing countries and geopolitics factor. After providing indicators related to each of the natural gas transmission methods, the aggregate dependency index of each country is determined using the entropy-based aggregating method. This paper considers pipeline and liquefied natural gas. In this study, 17 countries are selected to evaluate the risk of dependency in natural gas exports. With respect to Iran’s exporting natural gas plans, gas export portfolio risk is calculated based on two proposed scenarios. Considering two methods of transmission, the results show that gas export portfolio risk will be 63.4% at the lowest risk level.