Carbon emission from the electric power industry in Jiangsu province, China: Historical evolution and future prediction

Abstract

This paper takes Jiangsu as an example to measure the carbon emissions from the electric power industry from 2002 to 2017, builds an extended STIRPAT model to quantify its driving factors, and uses the Monte Carlo method to simulate the evolution of carbon emissions in multiple scenarios from 2018 to 2030. The results show that: (1)Population scale, urbanization level, GDP per capita, industrial added value, and electricity consumption intensity promote the increase of carbon emissions in the electric power industry. (2)Trade openness and the transmission level of other provinces play a role in reducing carbon emissions. (3)Under the baseline scenario and the green development scenario, the carbon emissions of the electric power industry have shown a continuous growth trend, but the growth rate of carbon emissions has slowed down significantly under the green development scenario.