The path to a 2025 nuclear-free Taiwan: An analysis of dynamic competition among emissions, energy, and economy

Abstract

Taiwan intends to be nuclear free by 2025. This study employs the Lotka–Volterra competition model for sustainable development to analyze the emissions–energy–economy (3Es) issue to make appropriate policy suggestions for a nuclear-free transition. It also offers a new approach to naming the 3E relationship. The literature review shows that the environmental Kuznets curve accompanies the feedback and conservation hypotheses. In the 3E dynamics relationship analysis, the model shows a good mean absolute percentage error (<15%) for the model estimation. The key findings are as follows: 1) the fossil fuel-led economy exists; 2) CO2 emissions are reduced with nuclear energy consumption; 3) renewable energy is far from scale; 4) a complementary effect exists between fossil fuel and nuclear energy consumption; and 5) gas retrofitting and phasing out of nuclear seem imminent. In the energy transition, Taiwan drastically cuts nuclear energy without considering energy diversity due to which troubles might ensue. The priority issue for Taiwan’s energy mix is energy security. To deal with these concerns, this study suggests the government could improve energy efficiency, build a smart grid, develop carbon capture and storage, and reconsider putting nuclear energy back into the energy mix before renewable energy is scaled.