The heterogeneous repercussions of killing Osama bin Laden on global terrorism patterns

Abstract

The United States has adopted the targeted killing of high-ranking members of terrorist organizations to disrupt terrorist networks and exert general deterrence. The most salient of these killings occurred on 2 May 2011, when US Navy Seals killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan. Although general deterrence suggests this should result in decreased subsequent terrorism, high-profile targeted killings can also result in increased terrorist violence through backlash. This study uses dual trajectory analysis to examine the divergent influence that the killing of bin Laden had on global terrorism trends between November 2007 and May 2014. These analyses reveal that killing bin Laden did not have the desired deterrent impact on global terrorism or on terrorism committed by Al Qaeda.