Exploring the international decline in crime rates

Abstract

This paper examines aggregate crime trends and variation around them from 1988 to 2004 for 26 countries and five main crime types using data from the International Crime Victims Survey. Multilevel statistical analysis is used to identify the main trends. Major drops in crime were experienced in many countries from the early to mid-1990s onwards. The current analysis estimates that between 1995 and 2004, the mean international crime incidence reductions were: 77.1 percent in theft from cars, 60.3 percent in theft from person, 26.0 percent in burglary, 20.6 percent in assault and 16.8 percent in car theft. The study results suggest that, with the exception of burglary, all examined crime types fell by roughly the same rate across countries. The sample’s small number of countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia experienced even steeper reductions in burglary than occurred in Europe, North America and Australia.