Domestic Burglary Repeats and Space-Time Clusters

Abstract

Predicting when and where crimes are likely to occur is crucial for prioritizing police resources. In a companion paper (Johnson and Bowers 2004), we showed that burglaries clustered within 1-2 months and up to 300-400 metres of a prior burglary, i.e. a domestic burglary could profitably trigger time- and space-limited resource deployment around the burglary. Research is here presented which refines the priorities that should be given in such deployment. It demonstrates that (a) whereas repeat victimization proper tended to occur in more deprived areas, space-time clustering was more evident in affluent areas, (b) houses next to a burgled home were at a substantially heightened risk relative to those located further away, particularly within one week of an initial burglary, (c) properties located on the same side of the street as a burgled house were at significantly greater risk compared with those opposite, even when corrections are made for differences in linear distances between homes, (d) houses with probably identical layouts (e.g. houses two, four, six, etc., doors away from a burgled property) were slightly more at risk than those with the reverse layout, but these differences are too slight to inform crime reduction practice. Taken together, these patterns may be used to prioritize attention within the two months after, and up to 400 metres from, a prior burglary identified by Johnson and Bowers (2004) as encompassing homes at elevated burglary risk.