Crime Dynamics at Lithuanian Borders

Abstract

This article compares levels and patterns of offences in different parts of Lithuania with the aim of assessing whether border regions are more susceptible to crime than the rest of the country. The article focuses on identifying and explaining these patterns for selected categories of offences while taking account of contextual factors. Spatial statistical techniques and Geographic Information Systems underpin the methodology employed. Findings suggest that there are variations in the level and geography of offences between border regions and the rest of the country. Despite the fact that the highest average increases in recorded criminal offences were found in two border regions, non-border regions had a higher average increase in the 1990s. This partially explains why, out of the six selected offences, only assault shows an increase owing to the ‘border effect’. The proportion of the population living in urban areas is by far the most important covariate in explaining the regional variations in offence ratios.